After the State of the Union, Trump keeps the world waiting for his plans for Iran.

 

Donald Trump says he prefers to do a deal with Iran rather than unleash a deadly war (Image:EPA)

When he delivered the longest State of the Union address ever, he gave no clear signal to a world that was on edge waiting to see what US President Donald Trump would do next in the Middle East. During the largest expansion of American power in the Middle East since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, the world's most powerful commander-in-chief chose not to elaborate on the merits of potential military action against Iran. President George W. Bush had traveled across the United States and beyond two decades earlier to prepare for what would eventually become a significant military intervention, albeit one based on incorrect intelligence. When his political base, who elected him to stay out of forever wars, is far more focused on the state of the economy and the fight over immigration just months before crucial midterm polls, Trump may have decided that it was not an issue to discuss. Or it may reflect his repeated claim that he has yet to make up his own mind about which path to pursue.  He maintains that he would rather make a deal than start a bloody war. His decision-making is likely to be heavily influenced by the third crucial round of negotiations this month, which takes place on Thursday in Geneva. A diplomat who has been briefed on this process concluded, "If President Trump does not receive, through his envoys, an acceptable text from Tehran, he's likely to order some form of military action soon after." "We haven't heard from them those secret words: 'We do not want nuclear weapons ever'," the president said in his speech, highlighting one of his consistent demands as he has shifted his messaging on his end game in Iran from nuclear issues to regime change. Yet, just hours earlier, Iran's foreign minister and top nuclear negotiator, Abbas Araghchi, reiterated on X almost that exact phrase: "Iran will under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon."

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 It's the convincing proof, to allay suspicion that Tehran has been moving in that direction, that is a key issue in the ongoing talks mediated by the Gulf state of Oman.

 Iran has indicated it is ready to compromise on its nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of the sanctions crippling its economy.

 A wave of unrest that was put down with a great deal of force in January was sparked by spiraling prices and a currency that was falling apart. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has put its confirmed death toll at more than 7,000, including 6,488 protesters, and is still investigating reports of thousands more deaths.  That number, according to the Iranian government, is approximately 3,100. Trump stated in his speech that the authorities appeared to have "killed at least, it looks like, 32,000 protesters." Esmail Baqai, the spokesperson for Iran's foreign ministry, called the president's comments about the death toll "big lies" right away.

Iran accused Trump of repeating "big lies" during his State of the Union address (Image: Reuters)

Trump also raised, for the first time, the charge that Iran was "working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States".  He seemed to suggest that this was another red line.

 Iran has repeatedly rejected the negotiations' inclusion of its ballistic missile program. In an interview with the BBC this month in Tehran, deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi, a leading member of the negotiating team, stated, "How can we accept depriving ourselves of our defensive capabilities?" "When we were attacked by Israelis and Americans, our missiles came to our rescue." This next round, involving Trump's top envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, are expected to provide greater clarity about where the gaps lie, and whether they can be closed.  Both parties are aware that time is running out. Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, makes the observation that "Washington and Tehran have been locked in last ditch diplomacy for decades." "What's different now is the largest American military buildup against Iran in its history, a demonstrated willingness on both sides to face off, and the worst crisis of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic, including the threat of regime change."

The USS Gerald R Ford is one of two aircraft carriers being deployed in the Middle East (Image: Reuters)

There are clear differences in this round of talks compared to the five rounds last year shattered by Israel's attack on Iran, which turned into a 12-day war and saw the US carry out strikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites.

 This time, Rafael Grossi, who heads the world's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has been far more involved in the very detailed technical discussions essential to any nuclear agreement, including robust inspections.

 Additionally, Iran is now making fresh proposals, such as reducing the purity of its highly enriched uranium, which is dangerously close to weapons grade at 60%. Also closely involved in this track is Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran and senior adviser to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. "The negotiators on both sides clearly want to reach a deal. One source remarked, "But what the main decision-makers are ready to accept is not clear." The question continues to loom ominously, hours before the negotiation table takes center stage. Will Trump agree to a limited agreement on Iran's nuclear program, which many people think is still difficult but could be done? At a time when the Islamic Republic has never faced a greater threat both from the outside and from within, to what extent will Khamenei be willing to make concessions on crucial issues?

Source: BBC