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| Many Iranians fear that a collapse of the talks could trigger catastrophic consequences (Image: Getty Image) |
Across Iranian cities, many are living through sleepless nights and anxious days amid the continued speculation that the United States could be about to carry out military strikes.
Since the violent suppression of anti-establishment protests more than 50 days ago, some young people in particular are obsessively checking plane- and ship-tracking platforms. Some of them are doing so out of fear of external intervention, while others are quietly or openly hoping for it. For many, hopes that outside pressure might shift the balance dimmed when US President Donald Trump - who previously encouraged demonstrators to "keep protesting" and promised that "help is on the way" - appeared to pivot toward diplomatic engagement instead.
The human toll of the unrest remains deeply contested. Human rights group HRANA, based in the United States, says that 7,007 people were killed and that thousands of more cases are still under investigation. This is much more than Iran's official figure of 3,117 people killed and shows how opaque the crackdown was.
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It is "impossible to determine the true scale of the violent crackdown" at this stage, according to UN experts, including the special rapporteur on human rights for Iran, Mai Sato. Internet restrictions and widespread detentions make this impossible. Iran is once more entering a period of profound uncertainty as the third round of negotiations between the United States and Iran that took place in Geneva this past week came to an end without producing a final agreement, despite the slightest signs of progress. A breakdown in the talks could have catastrophic repercussions, many Iranians worry. Some analysts warn that Iran's leaders have previously indicated they would risk "a regional war" rather than concede. If confronted militarily, some intelligence observers believe the Islamic Republic might adopt a "madman" posture, threatening to leave behind "burnt land" rather than permit an uncontested fall. Reports of ongoing domestic repression bolster these worries. Mai Sato has warned of rising pressure on human rights lawyers and says arrests, intimidation and surveillance have continued long after the major protest wave waned - contributing to what she calls one of the darkest human rights periods in Iran's recent history. Her repeated calls for "transparency and accountability" reflect the growing international alarm.
Two competing narratives dominate social media channels supporting the government. One camp expresses cautious optimism, hoping the negotiations will prevent another conflict, and evoking memories of the eight-year Iran-Iraq war and the more recent 12-day escalation war with Israel, which left more than 1,200 people dead and more than 6,000 injured in Iran. During the fighting in Israel, 28 people were killed and dozens were injured. The other side embraces an apocalyptic framing, insisting that a full‑scale clash between "good and evil" is inevitable, regardless of diplomacy.
In the meantime, during times of increased tension, state media have intensified their coverage of missile capabilities, a practice that has become routine. Economically, the country is entering what should be its busiest shopping season ahead of Nowruz - the Persian New Year - yet the atmosphere is not like it normally is at this time.
The market is paralyzed by uncertainty as a result of sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran and inflation exceeding 62%. Traders report minimal foot traffic, and investors appear hesitant, delaying major moves that now look more like gambles than strategic decisions.
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| Hopes that outside pressure might shift the balance inside Iran dimmed when Donald Trump appeared to pivot toward diplomacy(Image: Getty Image) |
People are also stocking up on canned food, torches, water bottles, and emergency backpacks, which is another social media trend that is becoming more and more apparent. While some members of the opposition portray the possibility of a US intervention as a targeted strike, others express concern regarding the likelihood of a larger and more destructive military operation. Iran is not the only country experiencing uncertainty. As regional tensions rise, the stakes of the next round of negotiations feel existential, as several nations have advised their citizens to leave. The upcoming weeks offer little clarity for millions of Iranians—only the hope that diplomacy prevails before fear becomes reality. The emotional landscape in Iran is shaped by exhaustion, social polarization, and hypervigilance because there is no clear way out of the crisis. The public fluctuates between naive hopes for diplomacy and acute awareness that unforeseen occurrences may instantly alter their future as the next round of talks approaches. To many, Iran now seems to be hovering in a tense limbo where everything - and nothing - could change at once.
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