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| This fight was never meant to be fair. (Image: BBC) |
After just two weeks, the effects of Operation Epic Fury are all over the world.
A crisis that puts regional stability and the global economy at risk has arisen as a result of an effort to get rid of Iran's navy, ballistic missiles, and any remaining plans to develop a nuclear weapon. Despite a devastating air assault, the Iranian regime is still in place, lashing out in new and dangerous ways.
The ongoing effects of what US President Donald Trump has referred to as a "short-term excursion" are shaking the Middle East. These are extremely difficult times for the Iranian people, who are being urged by Trump to "take over your government."
Iran - enduring power in a volatile region
Iran presents particular challenges. It is much larger than all of its neighbors combined, Iraq and Afghanistan, two countries in which the United States engaged in messy and lengthy interventions. Its military resources, like a portion of its nuclear program, are spread out across a vast nation and sometimes buried in mountain bunkers.
Its population of more than 90 million is diverse - half Persian but with a multitude of minorities, including Azerbaijanis, Kurds and Arabs.
Its Islamic regime, which has been in place since 1979, is well-organized, ideologically motivated, and deeply rooted. In spite of Israel's four previous attacks since April 2024 and one by the United States, its hold on power was brutally demonstrated in January when it crushed a wave of popular protests.
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Conflict rapidly escalates across the region
The war began with a massive assault on Iran’s air defences, missiles and drones. Dozens of Iranian ships were sunk in and around the Gulf. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and many key regime figures, were killed on day one.
The conflict quickly escalated, with Iran attacking Israel and American bases across the region with missiles and drones. Gulf countries, which had hoped to stay out of the conflict, found themselves in the firing line.
Israel's long-running conflict with Iran's close ally Hezbollah was rekindled in Lebanon, breaking the tentative ceasefire that had been reached in November 2024. Outside of the Middle East, the conflict spread. The British RAF base in Akrotiri, Cyprus, was hit within days. An American submarine sank an Iranian ship that was sailing off the Sri Lankan coast. Missiles launched towards Turkey were intercepted, while drones were used in attacks against Azerbaijan.
Panic and fear replace hope.
Iranians heard Trump say that "help is on its way" during the January massacre of protesters by regime forces. Some people were overjoyed when it finally arrived at the end of February. Iranians were seen in videos celebrating the news that the supreme leader had died. However, as the number of civilian deaths has increased, hope has given way to anxiety and fear. In a strike on a primary school in Minab, at least 160 people, many of them children, were killed. In another, there was a desperate search for survivors in the wreckage of an apartment building in eastern Tehran.
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| The apartment building on Resalat Square in Tehran shortly after an air strike (Image: BBC) |
As Iranians and many long-term Afghan refugees flee cities, the United Nations estimates that as many as 3.2 million people have been displaced. In response to Israeli evacuation orders, at least 800,000 civilians in southern Lebanon have been forced to relocate. The people who started this war have also suffered a lot from it. The US and Israel have both lost small numbers of military personnel. Additionally, civilian casualties have occurred, including the deaths of nine Israelis on March 1 when an Iranian ballistic missile struck a bomb shelter in the city of Beit Shemesh.
Drones and low-tech weapons put US strength at risk.
Since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the United States had spent weeks putting together one of the largest military task forces ever, which included two carrier strike groups and a large number of aircraft. Between them, Israel and the United States have every weapon known to man. They can fire vast numbers of accurate missiles, from a distance, to disable and destroy Iran’s defences. They can respond with bombs that are nearly inexhaustible.
Drones and ballistic missiles are in significant, if decreasing, stockpiles in Iran. Although it may be holding back some, it is using fewer and fewer of them after two weeks. But it still has cards to play, as a spate of recent attacks on tankers at sea using “unknown projectiles” and naval “suicide” drones has shown. These could prolong the conflict for some time because they will be harder to find and eliminate.
Source: BBC
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