Iran's leadership is in crisis because of Ali Larijani's death.

 

Larijani was viewed as one of Iran's most influential political figures (Image: Getty Images)

Ali Larijani, Iran's security chief, was killed in an Israeli airstrike, removing one of the Islamic Republic's most experienced and influential policymakers at a crucial time. Larijani was not a military commander, but he was a central figure in shaping Iran's strategic decisions.

 He was at the center of decisions about war, diplomacy, and national security as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. His voice was heard by everyone in the system, especially when it came to managing Iran's conflict with the United States and Israel. Larijani spoke in a defiant manner following the 28 February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, indicating that Iran was prepared for a prolonged conflict. His death, which the state media have now confirmed, comes amid a larger campaign in which several senior Iranian officials and commanders have been killed within a few weeks. This pattern suggests a sustained effort to weaken Iran's leadership structure during wartime.

Read More: Why the Strait of Hormuz matters so much in the Iran war

 Despite his hardline stance against the West, Larijani was often described inside Iran as a pragmatist.  He was technocratic while adhering to ideologies and favoring calculated strategy over rhetoric. However, he was also involved in important diplomatic endeavors, such as serving as an envoy in Iran's long-term cooperation agreement with China. He remained incredibly skeptical of engagement with Western powers.

Larijani was in charge of dealing with three major crises when he passed away. The war itself was the first. He argued that Iran ought to prepare for a conflict that will last a long time and spread throughout the region and beyond, including closing the Strait of Hormuz. The second was a wave of domestic unrest that started out as complaints about the economy but quickly turned into larger protests with the goal of overthrowing the Islamic Republic. These were met with a crackdown that resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of protesters nationwide. The third was Iran's nuclear programme and stalled indirect negotiations with Washington, both of which had already been disrupted by military strikes.

 His removal leaves these issues unresolved and transfers them to an as-yet-unknown successor facing an extremely fragile situation.  Even though Iran has demonstrated resilience by disrupting global energy markets, its airspace is still susceptible to further attacks. The risk of being targeted immediately exists for any new senior figure.

Larijani (fourth from left) pictured alongside Iran's former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (centre), who was killed in the first round of US-Israeli strikes ( Image: Getty Images)

This could further tilt power in the military's favor. According to recent statements made by President Masoud Pezeshkian, armed forces units have effectively been granted broad authority to act in the event that senior leadership is unable to do so. In practice, that could mean decisions being taken more quickly, but with less central co-ordination.

 There are also indications that the leadership is having difficulty controlling succession. Iran has delayed public announcements and kept some figures, including the new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, largely out of sight.  It is unclear whether this is because of internal uncertainty or security concerns. In the short term, the likely outcome is a more volatile situation: a harder military posture in the war and harsher repression at home.

 Iranian army chief Amir Hatami has also threatened to launch a "decisive" retaliation for Larijani's death.

 However, in a nation of more than 90 million people, a system that continues to lose senior leaders may find it increasingly difficult to function efficiently over time. Therefore, the impact of Larijani's death extends beyond the loss of a single official. It exacerbates a leadership crisis that has the potential to alter the course of the war and the Iranian state's stability.

Source: BBC