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| US President Donald Trump (Image: Getty Images) |
Three weeks after the joint US-Israeli war against Iran began, the conflict has reached a fuzzy state of mixed messages and uncertainty, with Donald Trump's public comments often seemingly contradicted by realities on the ground.
The US president has stated that the war is "very complete, pretty much," but new American ground forces, including a Marine expeditionary unit, are entering the region. Despite the fact that it is "winding down," US and Israeli missile and bomb attacks on Iranian targets continue unabated. It is a "simple military maneuver" to open the Strait of Hormuz, which is the geographic chokepoint through which 20% of the world's oil exports travel; however, at this time, only Iranian-approved ships are navigating the waters. The Iranian military is "gone", but drones and missiles are still striking targets in the region and targets have extended as far as the joint US-UK base in Diego Garcia.
Trump threatened an escalation in a Saturday evening post on Truth Social, stating that the US military would begin targeting Iranian power plants "starting with the biggest" if Iran did not "fully open, without threat" Hormuz within 48 hours.
The day before, however, he had used his social media website to provide a numbered list of American military objectives for the Iran war, which he said the US was "getting really close" to fulfilling.
Degrading or destroying Iran's military, defense infrastructure, and nuclear weapons program, in addition to safeguarding American allies in the region, were among the items in his most in-depth statement on the subject since the war began. The objective of protecting the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump claimed should be the responsibility of other nations that rely more heavily on oil exports from the Gulf, was not included. The president has made it clear that the United States does not rely on oil from the Middle East and is a net exporter of energy. However, this view ignores the global nature of the fossil fuel market, where price fluctuations directly affect the price of gasoline in the United States.
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Trump's Truth Social post also made no call for Iranian regime change. Gone are any references to approving the nation's next leader or "unconditional surrender", which Trump had insisted on in the early days of the war.
In Trump's latest outline of his objectives, it is possible that the US could end its operation with Iran's current anti-American leadership in power, its oil exports still flowing and its ability to assert some measure of control over the Strait of Hormuz intact.
If that is an unappealing resolution to a war that the president and his aides have said began with the 1979 Iran Revolution and that they would finish, there is an alternative route that involves the US ground forces presently on the way to the Middle East region.
Just over a week ago, US media reported that a Marine expeditionary unit, with about 2,500 combat soldiers and supporting ships and aircraft, had been dispatched from Japan to the Middle East, which it should reach in the coming days. Another Marine force of comparable size recently left its California base, and its arrival is anticipated for the middle of April. Military experts have speculated that the United States might be preparing to seize Kharg Island, a piece of land measuring 21 square kilometers (8 square miles) that houses Iran's primary oil export terminal. In theory, this could stop the country from getting its oil, costing it money it desperately needed and forcing it to give more to the Americans in exchange for peace. Trump on Friday said that he wasn't sending ground troops to Iran, but added: "If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you". It would appear that this is not his intention. The threat of such a move prompted Iran's state media to report on Saturday that any attack on Kharg Island would lead Iran to cause "insecurity" in the Red Sea, another key global shipping transit point, and "set fire" to energy facilities throughout the region.
The dangers that would accompany a US escalation that further exposes American military forces to Iranian retaliation are emphasized by Iran's warning. The Trump administration was preparing to ask Congress for $200 billion (£150 billion) in emergency funding for the ongoing Iranian military operation, according to reports in the US media this week. Such a request would suggest that, far from winding down, the White House is preparing for a long, expensive fight.
At best, Congress's initial response was cautious, including from Trump's Republican allies. "We are discussing boots on the ground. We're talking about that kind of extended activity," said Republican Congressman Chip Roy of Texas.
"They have got a whole lot more briefing and a whole lot more explaining to do on how we're going to pay for it, and what's the mission here."
Not only does the so-called "fog of war" cloud the thinking of military planners, but it also affects how politicians and the general public perceive them. It appears that the Iran war is at a crossroads. But which direction it takes from here is a puzzle.
Source: BBC
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