 |
| (L-R) US President Donald Trump, Iran's leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Image: Reuters) |
The majority of people, though not all, want this war to end as soon as possible. But on what conditions? Positions diverge in this regard.
The United States
The war goals of President Donald Trump have been unclear, appearing to range from a straightforward reduction in Iran's nuclear program to a total surrender to all demands from the United States and Israel. Iran has not yet given up or fallen apart. But the relentless, precise bombing that has been going on for 16 days has severely weakened its military. In February, Oman mediated indirect talks between the United States and Iran in Geneva that were making progress on the nuclear dossier. According to the Omanis, Iran was willing to make significant concessions in exchange for substantial assurances that it was not pursuing a nuclear weapon. Iran was unwilling to discuss its support for proxies in the region, such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, or its plans to end its ballistic missile program.
For Washington and many of its allies, the ideal outcome of this war would be for the ayatollahs' rule to end and for a peaceful, democratically elected government to take their place, no longer posing a threat to its people or its neighbors. However, as of Monday, that does not appear to be the case. The next best thing for the United States would be for a badly damaged Islamic Republic to behave differently, stop treating its citizens badly, and stop supporting radical militias in the region. Following Iran's selection of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of his late, hardline predecessor Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as its new supreme leader, this appears unlikely once more. With rising global oil prices, a partially blocked Strait of Hormuz and increasing unease back home that America is getting sucked into yet another costly Middle Eastern conflict, there will be mounting pressure on President Trump to call off this war. However, if the Tehran regime continues to exist unchallenged and defiantly, it will be difficult for him to portray it as anything other than a failure.
Iran
 |
| The US and Israel have launched thousands of strikes on Iran (Getty Images) |
Iran wants the war to end as soon as possible, but not if it means giving in to every request from Washington. It is aware that it probably possesses the "strategic patience" to win this war over Trump, and geography is on its side. Iran has the longest coastline of any Gulf state, and the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint, has the potential to forever pose a threat to shipping, which typically transports around 20% of the world's oil supplies. The US president's call on countries to come and help cope with the consequences of a war he co-started with Israel is being met with reluctance. When they did not support this war in the first place, the United Kingdom, Europe, and other nations are wary of putting their navies in danger by escorting commercial vessels through the Strait.
Officially, Iran says the war must end with a cast-iron guarantee that it won't be attacked again and it also wants war reparations for the billions of dollars' worth of damage done by US and Israeli airstrikes. It probably knows that neither will come to it. However, for the Islamic Republic of Iran's leadership and Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) to be able to proclaim this conflict as a victory to their people and the rest of the world, they must only survive it.
Israel
 |
| CCTV captures moment Iranian missile hits Tel Aviv (Image: BBC) |
Israel appears to be least eager to end this war out of the three participating nations—the United States, Iran, and Israel. They want to see as many of Iran's ballistic missile stocks, storage depots, command and control centers, radar sites, and IRGC bases destroyed as possible. All of these, of course, can be rebuilt when the shooting stops so Israel wants Iran to understand there is a severe cost in doing so, namely that the Israeli Air Force is quite capable of returning and bombing them again in a few months' time.
Israel perceives Iran's nuclear program and missiles as a serious threat to its existence. Up until the start of this war, Iran had a highly developed domestic missile and drone industry. (It provided Russia, an ally, with the Shahed drones that have attacked Ukraine). Additionally, Iran has been enriching uranium to a purity of 60%, well above what is required for civil nuclear power. Israel's government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees these two threats as unavoidable when taken together.
The Gulf States
 |
| A new norm': BBC visits Doha market starting to fill up again two weeks into Iran war (Image: BBC) |
The Gulf Arab states – Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman – thought they could live with the Islamic Republic just across the water. up to now. They are furious that despite declining to back this war on Iran they have still been coming under almost daily bombardment from Iran's drones and missiles.
In the first few hours of this Monday alone, the Saudi defence ministry reported it had intercepted more than 60 projectiles aimed at its territory.
I was informed by a Gulf official that "a red line has been crossed." "We cannot have normal relations with Tehran after this because we have zero trust in them."
Source: BBC
Posts
0 Comments