After Iran talks falter, the big question is what happens next?

 

File photo of US Vice-President JD Vance on the phone with Donald Trump during a recent trip to Hungary(Image: Getty Images)

Twenty-one hours was not enough to end 47 years of hostility between Iran and the US.

 It was always unlikely that the historic high-level talks in Islamabad, which took place during a pause in weeks of terrible war, would end in any other way. Even though Iran's control of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, whose closure is causing economic shocks worldwide, has been a major obstacle in narrowing wide gaps on complex issues, the length of this marathon negotiation session belies the magnitude of the challenge. To do a deal, they also needed to overcome a deep chasm of distrust.

READ MORE: How many ships are crossing the Strait of Hormuz?

 Even a day ago, there was no guarantee that the two sides would meet, much less sit down together in the same room. A political stumbling block was removed. The urgent question now is: what happens next?

 What will become of the contentious two-week ceasefire that brought the world away from US President Donald Trump's alarming threat to destroy an Iranian "whole civilization"?

Would the president of the United States be willing to return his negotiators to the bargaining table? Sources in Islamabad tell us that after US Vice President JD Vance boarded his plane at sunrise, some conversations continued, and that the US delegation had made their "final and best offer." Will the United States now negotiate or escalate?

We still don't know enough about what happened behind tightly closed doors in a five-star hotel in leafy locked-down Islamabad during talks that went on long into the night.

 With the help of Pakistani mediators, there are still few details about the disagreements and discussions between the two sides, as well as the calls to experts, advisers, and, according to Vance, "dozens" of calls to Trump himself. The vice-president spoke of the "core goal" of the US during his brief dawn news conference.

 "We need to see an affirmative commitment that [Iran] will not seek a nuclear weapon and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon," he said.

Iran had made new concessions during the most recent round of negotiations in February, prior to the resumption of military strikes. Among these concessions was the reduction of its 440 kilogram stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium, which was dangerously close to weapons grade. But it still insists on its "right" to enrich and hasn't been willing to give up that stockpile, now said to be buried deep in the rubble after US and Israeli air strikes last year.

 In the absence of a new agreement, it has also repeatedly rejected requests to open the Strait of Hormuz to facilitate the free flow of vital oil, gas, and other essential goods traffic.

The belief that they were on the winning side in this war encouraged the Iranian and American delegations to travel to Islamabad. And they went into battle with the knowledge that, even if they failed, they could keep fighting, despite the escalating agony for their own people and a world still reeling from the cost of this war. A "limited psychological understanding of the adversary and what compromises are needed for a real deal" was also present, according to Dr. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House. Vance spoke of good news – "we've had a number of substantive negotiations" - and there was bad news: "We have not reached an agreement."

Furthermore, he stated emphatically that was "bad news for Iran much more than the United States of America." In a post on X, Esmail Baghaei, the spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, criticized the US for its "excessive demands and unlawful requests." And its parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Iran's negotiating team, wrote that "the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations".

 Iran is indicating that it is prepared to continue talks. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar urged all sides to uphold the fragile ceasefire and said they would continue their efforts to encourage dialogue - sentiments being echoed in other concerned capitals.

 If history provides any lessons, the last time Iran reached a nuclear deal with the US and other world powers in 2015, it took 18 months of breakthroughs and breakdowns.

 Trump has made it abundantly clear that he does not want to get caught up in lengthy negotiations. Vance had previously stated that the United States would not be open to Tehran's attempts to "play us." The Pakistani journalist Kamran Yousef said that this round had "no breakthrough but no breakdown either," joining a legion of journalists who worked all night to provide nonstop coverage with few details. The world waits for a verdict.

Source: BBC