 |
| Getty Images |
In a day, Donald Trump went from threatening that Iran's civilisation "will die tonight" to declaring that Iran's ten-point plan was a "workable" basis for negotiation in Pakistan.
The ceasefire, first and foremost, is a respite for all those civilians across the Middle East who have been under fire since the United States and Israel went to war against Iran on 28 February.
The people of Lebanon are not included. Israel launched a massive and deadly wave of air strikes after insisting that the ceasefire did not apply to Lebanon. It's possible that the respite elsewhere won't last long. The United States and Iran both have compelling reasons to end the war. However, their publicly stated positions diverge significantly. Two weeks lie ahead to attempt to make a deal between two sides that do not trust each.
J.D., the US Vice President, The ceasefire was referred to by Vance as a "fragile truce." That's an accurate assessment. While simultaneously claiming victory, both sides are making claims that are less plausible. It was a "historic and overwhelming" "capital V military victory" for the United States, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told journalists at the Pentagon. "The world's leading state sponsor of terrorism proved utterly incapable of defending itself, its people or its territory," he said.
READ MORE :Oil prices plunge and shares jump on US-Iran ceasefire plan
Equally bombastic claims are coming from Tehran, where the regime is also claiming an overwhelming victory.
On social media, Iran's First Vice President Mohammed Reza Aref stated that "the era of Iran has begun" and that "the world has welcomed a new center of power." According to Trump's supporters, Iran was forced to negotiate as a result of the grave damage caused by the United States and Israel. The president's supporters say his statements were decisive negotiating tactics. His threats included acts that sounded very much as if they could have amounted to war crimes and crimes against humanity.
The Iranians believe that the regime's resilience and resistance to US and Israeli power, the fact that they can still fire ballistic missiles and drones and control the Strait of Hormuz, has forced America to negotiate on the basis of their ten-point plan.
It contains points that would be as hard for the Americans to accept as it would be for Iran to accept US positions.
They include recognition of Iran's military control of the Strait of Hormuz, a demand for reparations, the lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen assets.
Keep up with our live coverage. What we know about the US-Iran ceasefire, which lasted for two weeks. How Pakistan contributed to the fragile ceasefire between Iran and the United States Israel carries out large wave of air strikes across Lebanon
The war and its repercussions are reshaping the Middle East, regardless of whether the Pakistanis are able to reach a lasting agreement when the two sides travel to Islamabad.
When they ordered the attack on Iran, both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu said regime change in Iran was coming. Despite the president's attempt to portray the assassination of senior Iranian leaders as the establishment of a new regime, it has not occurred. Opponents of the Iranian regime inside the country who were hoping that it would fall will not be reassured by the way the war might be ending.
A regime that Israel and the United States predicted would fall is now a full participant in negotiations. Iran will attempt to improve its position. Trump was calling for the regime's unconditional surrender just a few weeks ago. The differences between the talks in Islamabad and the talks in Geneva, which appeared to be moving forward until the US and Israel renewed their war on Iran, are not at all clear. In Geneva, they were discussing a new deal on the nuclear file, including the fate of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium that could be used to make a nuclear weapon.
Another factor will be as high on the agenda in Islamabad – the Strait of Hormuz. It has become a new source of deterrence for Iran. If the US and Israel go back to war, Iran has shown it can easily block it, causing global economic damage.
Before 28 February international shipping could transit the strait freely.
Now Iran says that during the ceasefire it will once again allow ships to use the Strait, as long as their movements are coordinated with the Iranian military. It will want that agreement to continue and may also ask shippers to pay tolls similar to those they pay to travel through the Suez Canal.
Israel was not part of the diplomacy that led to the ceasefire. Netanyahu wanted to cause the Islamic Republic even more harm. His political adversaries, including opposition leader Yair Lapid, have accused him of jeopardizing Israel's security during an election year in Israel. The possibility that their tactical victories over Iran will not result in a strategic advance alarms them. China played a role in the run up to the ceasefire, which implies that it will also have a strong influence in the Islamabad talks. That will increase its influence in the Middle East even more. The language used by Trump will also have repercussions. It has damaged relations with allies, especially in NATO. It will be hard for British politicians to forget his abuse of Sir Keir Starmer and ridicule of the Royal Navy.
States in the Gulf Arab region will reconsider their security ties to the United States but will not break off from it. In addition, the sight and sound of a US president accepting threats of acts that could be considered war crimes, such as a potential genocidal attack on an entire civilization, has raised grave and alarming concerns about Trump's moral and legal stance all over the world.
Source: BBC
Posts
0 Comments