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The US claim that Iran may have been behind a deadly strike on the town of Lamerd on the first day of the war has been challenged by multiple experts in weapons. Six experts - who examined footage of the strike and all commented independently - contested the US suggestion that it was an Iranian missile, citing the missile's visual features, the way it exploded, its trajectory and the number of strikes in the area as the basis for their analysis.
Iranian officials have said 21 people, including four children, were killed.
On March 28, BBC Verify reported the strikes, citing experts who suggested the use of a US Precision Strike Missile (PrSM). For that report, the US Central Command (Centcom), which is in charge of US military operations in the Middle East, declined to comment. Centcom then released a statement on 31 March denying it was a US missile, instead saying that footage of the attack was consistent with an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile.
"Unlike the Iranian regime, which has attacked civilian locations in neighboring countries more than 300 times," the statement added, "US forces do not target civilians." BBC Verify stated that it had "nothing to add" to its initial statement when it returned to Centcom with the experts' analysis.
Lamerd, a town in southern Iran, came under attack on 28 February. Iranian state media's CCTV footage, which was verified and geolocated by BBC Verify, showed a weapon just before it exploded above a residential area. Experts identified it as likely being a US missile, based on its appearance, the size of the blast and the distance from potential US launch sites in the Middle East.
In the initial BBC Verify report, three analysts from the defense intelligence firm Janes and a specialist from McKenzie Intelligence all stated that the missile in the footage was probably a PrSM, a brand-new Lockheed Martin missile made for the US military. A New York Times report also found that a PrSM likely hit Lamerd.
Capt. Tim Hawkins of the US Navy issued the following statement on Tuesday: "After looking into the reports, U.S. The accusations are false, as confirmed by Central Command." "does not show a Precision Strike Missile (PrSM)," the statement reads, "U.S. forces did not launch any strikes at any time into the city of Lamerd or anywhere within 30 miles during the opening day of Operation Epic Fury." "Consistent with the dimensions and silhouette of an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile, the munition depicted in the video appears to be twice as long," Capt. Hawkins stated. Multiple weapons experts have disputed Centcom's claims, noting the Hoveyzeh has a number of distinctive features which they say are not visible in the Lamerd strike footage.
Iranian officials claim that 168 people were killed in strikes that struck an Iranian school and a nearby military base in Minab on the same day, nearly 400 kilometers to the east. Expert video analysis suggests that the military compound was hit by a US Tomahawk missile. The incident was under investigation, according to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who added that US forces "never target civilian targets."
PrSM vs Hoveyzeh missile
According to weapons analyst Amael Kotlarski of Janes, a defense intelligence company, the Hoveyzeh missile has two mid-body wings and a belly-mounted turbojet. "Critically, the turbojet and wings would be visible from any angle from which the missile is viewed. "The footage does not clearly distinguish any of that," he stated. According to another McKenzie Intelligence munitions expert, the missile in the video lacked wings or an external engine. They claimed that the footage shows distinctive "canard fins" that are consistent with a PrSM. They went on to say, "I remain convinced that the weapon seen is a PrSM rather than an Iranian Hoveyzeh Cruise Missile - the two are vastly different in appearance."
In a post on X, weapons expert Trevor Ball said that the length of the missile was "much more consistent with the PrSM" than that of a Hoveyzeh missile.
He continued, "The Hoveyzeh silhouette is also very different, with wings and an engine that is visible depending on the angle."
Airburst warhead
In the verified CCTV footage, the munition appears to explode mid-air above a Lamerd residential area. This is consistent, according to experts, with the PrSM's airburst feature, which lets a weapon explode above the ground to spread out the fragments over a larger area, as is the case with some technologically advanced missiles. Despite the low resolution of the footage, a mid-air explosion can be clearly seen. The Hoveyzeh missile does not, according to experts, possess this capability. The manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, describes the PrSM as an "optimized warhead" which contains pre-formed fragments that explode outwards. It claims that this "maximizes area effects" and "increases lethality." Chris Proops, an intelligence expert and former investigator for the National Crime Agency (NCA), stated that the mid-air explosion was more consistent with a PrSM than with any Iranian cruise missile currently in use.
The conclusion that an airburst weapon was used is further supported by images taken after the strike. It shows the walls and ground covered by small tightly-packed impact marks which match the spread of fragments from an airburst warhead like a PrSM, according to expert analysis.
An analyst from McKenzie Intelligence stated, "Those pock marks are witness marks of a fragmentation munition." "To put it simply, the warhead behavior and effect from the Lamerd strike displays a level of technical sophistication that we have not observed, so far, from any Iranian cruise or ballistic missile," Kotlarski from Janes added. He said that while there is "little solid data" on the Hoveyzeh's warhead, it is thought to use a more "primitive" impact-fuzed high-explosive warhead, meaning it would detonate on or after hitting a target.
The three verified strikes
Since our initial investigation, BBC Verify has confirmed additional footage that shows there were three separate strikes on a sports hall, a residential area and near an educational centre in Lamerd that day.
"While it is feasible that an Iranian cruise missile could malfunction, it is a bit beyond credulity to have a number of them fail above the same location at the same time," said an analyst from McKenzie Intelligence.
The verified CCTV footage, according to experts, does not appear to contain any damage, malfunction, or interceptions, either.
N R Jenzen Jones, director of Armament Research Services, said although it's difficult to positively identify the munition, "it appears to be correctly aligned for the terminal phase of its flight".
d dozens of photos and videos of the aftermath of the strike and has not yet seen any on-the-ground footage of the IRGC base after the attack. On March 9, high-resolution satellite images also showed the base unharmed. Centcom's statement says US forces did not launch any strikes at any time into the city of Lamerd or anywhere within 30 miles during the opening day of Operation Epic Fury.
But the US Department of Defense has previously posted an illustrative map captioned "First 100 hours" of the US-Israeli war with Iran, marking the locations of US-Israeli strikes and Iranian air defences along Iran's southern coast, including the area around Lamerd.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also told BBC Verify that it was not aware of any Israeli strikes in that part of Lamerd on 28 February.
Source: BBC
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