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| Viktor Orban has run Hungary for 16 years (Image: AFP via Getty Images) |
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has convened an emergency meeting of the National Defence Council after explosives were found near a pipeline that transports Russian gas to Hungary.
The finding in a border region of Serbia comes at a time when Orban's party is badly behind in opinion polls ahead of important elections on Sunday. Days after security experts warned of a possible "false flag" operation that could be blamed on Ukraine, opposition leader Peter Magyar accused him of "panic-mongering" orchestrated by "Russian advisers." Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Orban, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has resisted EU calls to stop importing energy from Russia. Experts in Hungarian security have raised the possibility in recent weeks of a staged operation, either on Hungarian or Serbian territory, with the goal of gaining enough support for Orban's Fidesz party to help them win the election or giving Orban a reason to declare an emergency and postpone or cancel the vote. On Sunday morning, Orban's close ally and Serbian President Alexander Vucic informed the Hungarian leader of the discovery. Two rucksacks full of explosives and detonators were found by the Serbian army near the village of Tresnjevac in the Kanjiza district, about 20km (12 miles) from the point where the TurkStream pipeline crosses into Hungary.
Vucic wrote on Instagram, "Our units found an explosive of devastating power." "We would keep him updated on the investigation," I told Prime Minister Orban.
READ MORE: Hungary's Orban defies EU partners and meets Putin again in Moscow
Hungary receives between five and eight billion cubic metres of Russian gas a year through the TurkStream pipeline, which both Hungary and Slovakia depend on for Russian gas.
"If the investigation proves that we were not the primary target after all, but rather Hungary's supply lines, then this makes it even clearer: the terrorist attack was planned with the aim of bringing Viktor Orban down," Balint Pasztor, president of the Vojvodina Hungarian Association and another important ally of Orban, wrote on Facebook. Fidesz has made hostility to Ukraine a cornerstone of its election campaign.
At election rallies Orban has told supporters that low heating and fuel prices in Hungary are only possible thanks to cheap Russian oil and gas, both of which arrive in Hungary by pipeline - oil through Ukraine, and gas through the Balkans.
Orban asserts that a "Kyiv-Brussels-Berlin" axis is working together to prevent Hungary from receiving inexpensive fuel from Russia in order to install their "puppet" prime minister Magyar in the upcoming election. A Tisza government, Orban says, would also drag Hungary into a European war against Russia.
Orban has already accused Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky of imposing "an oil blockade" on Hungary, because no Russian oil has arrived through the Druzhba pipeline, which crosses Ukrainian territory, since the end of January.
Ukraine claims that a Russian attack caused damage to the pipeline, which should reopen in the middle of April.
There have been no official allegations of Ukrainian involvement in the pipeline incident so far. However, the BBC was informed by a knowledgeable Serbian source that this could occur as soon as Monday, when Serbian authorities are anticipated to release the initial findings of their investigation. Andras Racz, a security expert from Hungary, issued a Facebook warning on April 2 that a "fake attack" on the TurkStream pipeline might be staged inside Serbia. In addition, Racz predicted that the explosives would be identified as Ukrainian, allowing Orban to blame Kyiv once more. According to Peter Buda, a former senior Hungarian counterintelligence officer, "We had some solid preliminary information about this operation, including details about the place and possible timing." Buda made this statement to the BBC. "It is abundantly clear that Ukraine's interests are not in danger here. An operation like this would help Orban before the election by influencing public opinion in his favour.''
The threat, according to the Hungarian government, is real. "In the past few days and weeks, we've seen it all," Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto wrote on Facebook.
"The Ukrainians planned to blockade our oil supply. Then they tried to impose a total energy blockade on us by firing dozens of drones at the TurkStream pipeline while it was still on Russian territory.
"And now we have today's incident, in which Serbian colleagues found explosives capable of blowing up the pipeline."
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