The Orban government has been repeatedly accused of draining state coffers and giving state tenders for projects to companies owned by close associates. The government explains this concentration of wealth as an attempt to put wealth in national, instead of foreign hands.
The projects included bridges, football stadiums and motorways.
Istvan Tiborcz, his wife's son, owns several notable hotels.
Lörinc Meszaros, his childhood friend and a former gas fitter, is now the country's wealthiest individual. When asked about his friends' and family's wealth, Orban declines to respond. All deny wrongdoing.
Can Orban save himself by blaming Ukraine - and its
EU backers - for his country's woes? And can the easy-going lawyer who wants to replace him persuade Hungarians, particularly those in rural areas that are the heartlands of
Fidesz, that he can deliver on his promise of a "more humane, better functioning country"?
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Viktor Orban roared in a hoarse voice, "All they stand for is anger, hatred, and destruction." The Hungarian prime minister was speaking at a mass election rally in Györ in western Hungary on 27 March, referring to opposition protesters who chanted "Filthy Fidesz" during his speech. His carefully cultivated image as the calm voice leading his nation through turbulent waters was briefly shattered. His bad-tempered outburst showed a different side of a man used to cracking jokes and charming even his critics.
The majority of opinion polls place the opposition Tisza party and its leader, Peter Magyar, far ahead of Orban's Fidesz, with the most recent poll placing Orban's party ahead by 35% to 58%. Additionally, he is making every effort to close the gap. After 16 years of virtually unchallenged rule, Orban has been forced to take to the road again. In the past three elections, he gave few rallies. Now, Europe's longest-serving leader is trying to get his backers and those who aren't sure where to stand. He has just a week left to rescue his government, and the international populist movement he embodies, from a crushing defeat.
In power since 2010, Orban has had the support of both US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has been a source of contention for the EU for a long time and is one of the few EU leaders who do not support Ukraine. He is the model for the growing number of nationalist parties in Europe, whether they are currently in power or on the verge of it. The parliamentary election in Hungary on April 12 is being closely watched worldwide.
The projects included bridges, football stadiums and motorways. Istvan Tiborcz, his wife's son, owns several notable hotels. Lörinc Meszaros, his childhood friend and a former gas fitter, is now the country's wealthiest individual. When asked about his friends' and family's wealth, Orban declines to respond. All deny wrongdoing.
Can Orban save himself by blaming Ukraine - and its EU backers - for his country's woes? And can the easy-going lawyer who wants to replace him persuade Hungarians, particularly those in rural areas that are the heartlands of Fidesz, that he can deliver on his promise of a "more humane, better functioning country"?
Under pressure
From alleged voter intimidation schemes to a dramatic Russian proposal to stage a fictitious assassination attempt, each day brings new evidence that Orban is in trouble. However, Fidesz asserts that the opposition has concocted the perception that it is in trouble. Political analyst Zoltan Kiszelly from the Szazadveg think tank asserts, "All these scandals are just the usual suspects trying to build a narrative." "When the opposition lose the election, this gives them an excuse to allege 'fraud'."
Political analyst Gabor Török - one of the few analysts in this extremely polarised society respected by both sides - wrote recently on his blog: "This is not the 'calm strength' or the 'strategic calm,' image, nor the one carefully cultivated for years and displayed on 'Prime Minister of Hungary' posters.
"For the government side, it does not bode well if the remaining two weeks unfold in this manner."
Referendum worldwide
The shockwaves of an Orban defeat would reverberate far beyond Hungary's borders.
"Budapest is the headquarters of illiberal democracy in the world," argues Michael Ignatieff, former rector of the Central European University, which was forced out of the Hungarian capital in 2019. "This is not just an election. This is a referendum on Orban's entire model of authoritarian rule.
He is referring to the network of right-wing influencers' think tanks, fellowships, and gatherings that zigzag across the Atlantic to support one another. On consecutive days last month, the American Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a platform for people across the political right to discuss ideas, and Patriots for Europe, the right-wing European Parliament group, held major events in Budapest.
The fact that no leading US politician attended the Hungarian CPAC event this year raised eyebrows within Fidesz, but the Republicans are not leaving Orban in the lurch. In February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited, and vice president JD Vance is scheduled to visit Budapest a few days before the vote.
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| Orban transformed Hungary into an international destination for the political right (Image: Getty Images) |
A victory for Fidesz in this election would add momentum to the chances of far-right parties in France, Germany, Poland, Spain and Portugal. Defeat for Fidesz would take some of the wind out of their sails. "While the rest of Europe is being sucked into the radical nationalist tunnel, we can show the way out," a senior Tisza official told me.
Getting the vote out
Despite a poor showing in the polls, Orban's allies deny that there is panic in the Fidesz camp.
Zoltan Kiszelly says that the most important thing will be whether or not Fidesz can get their supporters to vote on election day. "We have a lot of faith. "Neither our own nor those of the opposition believe in the opinion polls," he asserts. "The majority of the voters are for Fidesz. of pensioners, women, Gypsies (Roma), the poor, blue-collar workers, and rural individuals. Will they vote? That is the question. Fidesz has put a lot of effort into updating its database of supporters to make sure they do. Around 4.5 million of the 8.2 million-strong Hungarian electorate live in small towns and villages - the Fidesz heartlands. Since 2002, Fidesz has built a strong system of local patronage in the villages - the mayor decides who receives work, and who gets firewood in winter.
According to an investigative documentary released last week, mayors have been told how many votes each village needs to produce for Fidesz. According to those who were interviewed for the film, the rewards for voting for Fidesz included cash payments of €120 (£104), coupons for food, prescription drugs, and even illegal drugs. People who say they won't participate claim they won't be able to take part in public works projects, which are frequently the only local jobs available. Cars and minibuses are organised on election day. "Companions" stand by to accompany voters, who feign illiteracy or illness, into the voting booth, to make sure they vote for Fidesz and get their money, people interviewed in the film claim. These allegations have received no official response from the government. One minister told the BBC that any wrongdoing should be dealt with by the appropriate authorities.
Rival parties at previous elections offered potatoes and even small sums for votes, but nothing on the scale of this election, we were told by people who have been involved in elections over the decades.
Nikki, 32, stated, "Everyone here votes Fidesz" in Tiszabö, a village of 2,000 people in the northern Great Plain region of Hungary with a large Roma population. She praises the Fidesz mayor for rebuilding the roads, the kindergarten, and the sports centre. She claims votes won't need to be bought on 12 April, as Fidesz will win "because of the war".
The Russian connection
Orban has informed voters that they can choose peace or war in this election. Fidesz claims that only Orban can stop the "warmongers" in Brussels from dragging the EU and Hungary into the
Russia-Ukraine conflict. Peter Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisza party, is painted as a puppet of Brussels. The Fidesz message is that a vote for the opposition would mean that Hungary, as a
Nato member, will be forced to send Hungarian troops either in a future Nato peacekeeping operation, or a full-scale war with Russia, and young Hungarian men will die again on the eastern front. That is a message intended to have a profound impact in a nation that was on the losing side of both World Wars. Orban has argued since 2022 that Russia cannot be defeated and that the West should press Kyiv to seek peace with Moscow on Russia's terms, if necessary, rather than supporting Ukraine militarily and economically.
I was informed by the Median agency's veteran pollster Endre Hann that "the Fidesz anti-Ukraine, pro-Russian message is flagging." His latest figures suggest a growing 52% of those asked agreed that "Russia committed a serious and unprovoked act of aggression against Ukraine" with its 2022 full-scale invasion. Just 33% agreed with the Fidesz narrative that "Russia acted legally, to defend its interests and security."
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